April 14, 2025
A four-part series on tariffs, markets, and the stories we tell ourselves
If the headlines feel loud right now, you’re not imagining things. Tariffs, trade shifts, markets on edge—each announcement seems to land with more weight than the last.
Plenty of people are asking the same question: How can one man cause all of this trouble?
The answer, of course, is that he didn’t.
To understand where we are, we need to look at how we got here. This moment isn’t sudden. It’s the product of years of slow-build policy choices layered over deeper structural cracks.
Here’s what that path looks like.
Act I: Trump’s First Term (2017–2021)
Tariffs became a signature policy tool under President Trump. His administration leaned into them not only as a trade tactic, but as a message of strength and independence.
- In 2018, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum, citing national security.
- That same year, a trade war with China escalated rapidly. Tariffs were placed on hundreds of billions in goods. China responded in kind.
- The market reacted. The S&P 500 fell by about 6% in 2018, only to surge back in 2019 with a nearly 29% gain.
It wasn’t just the policy—it was the delivery. These tariffs often came by tweet or in off-the-cuff remarks. The unpredictability created volatility. Markets do not respond well to surprise.
Act II: Biden’s First Term (2021–2025)
The Biden administration took a different approach. Many expected a reversal of Trump-era trade policy. What followed instead was a reworking—not a retreat.
- Most of Trump’s tariffs remained.
- In 2021, the administration reached a deal with the EU, converting steel and aluminum tariffs into a quota system.
- By 2024, new tariffs were introduced on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, and medical supplies. In early 2025, more tariffs followed, tied to human rights concerns in China’s supply chain.
These were not insignificant moves. However, the tone changed. Policy updates arrived through formal channels. The language was measured. Market responses were muted.
The shift in tone made a difference. The tariffs still shaped trade. They simply didn’t shock the system.
This idea of tone—and how media frames these moves—is something we will explore in more depth this weekend. It deserves its own space.
Act III: Now (Trump’s Second Term)
In April 2025, new sweeping tariffs were announced: a 10% tariff on all imports and a 125% tariff on Chinese goods.
This time, the market didn’t absorb the news quietly.
Over the course of four trading days, the S&P 500 fell by 12%. It was the steepest drop in nearly five years. Sectors across the board were affected. Investors were rattled.
What changed?
That is the question we will turn to next. Because the answer is not just about policy—it is about pressure. It is about what happens when fragile systems meet loud decisions. It is also about the role of technology in making everything feel more urgent.
Next up: Part II – The System Was Already Fragile
We will look at the warnings issued earlier this year by the Government Accountability Office. We will also consider how the rise of AI and large language models has changed the way we consume information and react to it.
Sometimes what we feel has less to do with the facts, and more to do with the frame.
Lauren
The most important thing in my life is my family. My husband, Andrew, and our three smart and brave daughters.